This year, the 77th anniversary of Victory Day comes amid a brutal and destructive war waged by Russia in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement about the “special military operation” in Ukraine – the false claim that he wants to “de-Nazify” Russia’s neighbor – deliberately invokes the history of World War II. It is also a war that the Kremlin may not have thought would be as difficult as the ongoing tardiness. Some experts and sources, who believe that Putin will want to take advantage of the upcoming holidays to end the war, declaring victory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine bordering Russia, fear that Russia will launch an even more brutal attack on Ukraine in recent days. May 9. To explain the significance of Victory Day and the impact it could have on the war in Ukraine, Julian G. Waller, associate research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyzes, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Va., spoke to Yahoo News. (Some answers have been modified for length and clarity.) An armored escort of pro-Russian troops in Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 21. (Chingis Kondarov / Reuters) Yahoo News: Why is May 9, Victory Day, important for Russia? Julian G. Waller: Victory Day is perhaps the most important secular holiday in Russia, and in the past throughout the Soviet Union and in many former Soviet republics. It celebrates the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany. It was, at that time, fundamental to the legitimacy of the Soviet state and to the identity of the vast majority of Soviet citizens who experienced this devastating war, which killed between 20 and 26 million civilians and soldiers in the Soviet Union alone. It is a celebration of enormous and important symbolic significance, especially at the state level, at the level of culture, but also at the individual level, because everyone has grandparents who fought, many who died in the course of World War II. The story goes on Victory Day has been repeated more and more during the Putin regime since it came to power. Every year, a triumphant military procession takes place in Red Square and in Moscow, the country’s capital. And this triumphant procession is very similar to the Soviet past for how they also celebrated Victory Day on May 9th. So traditionally this was a kind of celebration in which ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] huge groups of tanks are about to be crowded, many soldiers will be marching in a closed step. Given the current tensions, of course, in the collective West, in the United States and elsewhere, it is going to be read much more as a threat. Will May 9 have any impact on the war in Ukraine? On an operational level, Victory Day is unlikely to be a major turning point in the war itself, because simply put, military reality on the ground is not necessarily going to correspond to an arbitrary calendar date. That said, many people have argued that because of the day’s symbolic response, the fact that it is so closely linked to the Russian armed forces, that the General Staff, the Russian regime itself, is trying as hard as it can. to use Victory Day in some way related to war. Many people talk about it as a kind of proclamation of victory, as a kind of moment that has fulfilled the mission. This is rather a bit exaggerated – not that it is [Russia] he is not going to try to claim. There will be some sort of victory claim, and it will certainly be related to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. And the new phase in Donbass is very likely to filter. This does not mean that everything will change on the ground, necessarily. It could just boost Russian efforts to get a kilo of their flesh, given that the battle of Kiev went so badly that there was a whole reorientation towards Donbass, and this attack begins now, more or less. It is certainly reasonable that there is significant pressure to show achievements, in particular geographical, territorial achievements, such as “We have occupied this or that territory in Ukraine up to this point. We have liberated this or that other people. “ This does not mean that the war will stop. I think it is very unlikely. Could the war in Ukraine become even more violent, especially by May 9? Everything can always get worse, this is definitely the case. That being said, despite the very remarkable atrocities and the great harsh actions on the part of the Russians, the civilian casualties are quite high, the military casualties also very high. This is a bloody affair, the war is always there and the war in the cities is terrible. The Russians have indeed shown relative restraint in the use of one of their most important military arsenals. I mean very specifically that Russian tactics have no particular nuances. However, they were thinner than in Syria, for example. Kyiv was not bombed with a rug, to take an example. we have not seen the use of regular nuclear weapons, biological, chemical weapons. All these things are possible. Even only in the conventional stage, thermobaric weapons could be developed regularly, indiscriminate rocket launches could be common and particularly targeted at civilians. There are absolutely exceptions to this, but in general, the Russians have not. Because this? Partly because the original Russian goal was not to destroy Ukraine, it was to engage in regime change, to take back the mother of all Russian cities in Kiev, to protect the population from the fascists, things like that. If this is your political goal and all wars are fought for political reasons, then you want to minimize the cost of reconstruction and you also want to create favoritism between a population. Did that come out particularly well for them? No it is not really. It should also be noted that there has been restraint and it may not seem very restrained, given the horrific images coming from places like Bucha or the siege of Kharkov or the destruction of Mariupol. These are terrible things. However, there was relative restraint. Russia is a nuclear superpower, Russia has many things it can do, and it does not do all that. At the moment, there is no evidence or seemingly necessity, and again from the position of the Western analyst abroad and unaware of such decisions, a large-scale escalation seems unnecessary, either in terms of the qualitative aspect of the war or the deep barbarity. and the destructive destructiveness of war, will increase in mass intensity. Where is the war in Ukraine going from here? The stakes are too high for Vladimir Putin, for the Russian regime as a whole. As for the course of this war, the fact that so far it has failed in its political and territorial goals, but again the war is in its early stages. Unfortunately, it is likely to continue for some time. We are in two months, it will get worse and we have to keep in mind that it will be difficult to make predictions about how long the war will last and in what ways it will develop. If the Donbas war goes moderately well for the Russians, if they are able to make a connection between the occupied territories in the south, with the occupied territories in Donbas, if that can be consolidated, there is a universe in which no further escalation is required, that their weakest, most troublesome war goal will be achieved. Regardless of whether Victory Day is used as a significant symbolic separation … it is very likely that during May, units of the Russian army will have to go into renewal mode, replenish supplies, reorganize, learn best practices . Given the fact that things have not gone very well on their part. This means that something like a pause along part of the strategic business theater is likely to take place. It would be strange if he did not. It will potentially be very important because at this point the pause will allow the Ukrainians to refuel. It will allow them to reposition themselves, to bring more troops to key areas wherever the front ends. And in the meantime, one of the problems for the Russian side is that every day that they do not achieve whatever political goal they have decided they have now is another day where the United States and other NATO allies provide more material, more financial support, more necessary equipment [to Ukraine]. And every day is another day for Congress or the national parliaments to come together and decide “we really want to make even more of a stamp.” And this causes problems if Russia’s political plans extend beyond the immediate territory of Donbass or southern Ukraine. Yes, the coming weeks will be potentially quite bloody, quite decisive, at least in the brief, immediate dissection of the war. But then there will be a calm, at least in some areas, just out of necessity. Then we can definitely look forward to a more interesting time later in the summer and whether or not the negotiations will lead anywhere remains to be seen. It is possible that the negotiations will start after the end of the Victory Day, after the end of the attack. However it ends, either before or after May 9th. And maybe we have some hope. It may be a false hope, but we can have some hope that at least there is a sense of returning to the table as the armies recover for the next round.
