The United States has seen “some evidence” of improvements in Russia’s ability to combine air and ground operations, as well as in its ability to supply forces on the ground, officials say. Progress is “slow and uneven,” a senior U.S. defense official said, allowing Russian forces to advance only “about several kilometers” each day.
But the United States believes that Russia is trying to learn from the mistakes it made early on, where food and fuel ran out in columns of tanks and armor, leaving the easy prey to Ukrainian tactics “hit and run”. Russia has placed command and control elements near its border with eastern Ukraine, according to a senior NATO official, indicating that they are trying to rectify the communication and coordination failures observed in the attack in Kyiv. Before the invasion began on February 24, Russia assembled 125 to 130 regular battalion groups, known as the BTG, around Ukraine and near Kyiv in particular, but when the fighting began, Russia’s military leaders showed little ability to force them to fight as one.
There are 92 BTGS in the country now, with another 20 just across the border in Russia, according to the senior defense official. “The attacks are somewhat better coordinated, but with small formations. Company-sized units with helicopter support,” said a European defense official. “The lowest level of mutual support. In NATO that would be a key thing.” However, Western officials familiar with the latest information say that even if Russia has learned key lessons from its systemic failures in the first stage of the conflict, it is not clear that Moscow will be able to make the necessary changes to dominate its territory. Donbass. His army has suffered heavy losses in both manpower and equipment, and officials believe that other equipment transported from various parts of Ukraine may not have been fully repaired yet. Many of the combat units recruited soldiers who had never fought or trained together.
“I do not know how many lessons can really work. It is not a simple thing,” said the senior NATO official. “You’re not just moving tanks and personnel and saying, ‘Now go back to the race!’ You can read more here. Alex Marquardt and Natasha Bertrand contributed to the report in this post.