To most, the Labor leader’s protest that “we were too busy” with last year’s local election campaign sounded like an outspoken defense of Boris Johnson. The Prime Minister insisted that he and his officials were working very hard and stopped only for a moment to say a few words of thanks or to ambush him with a cake. So Labor can complain, but they should not be surprised that the Conservatives are campaigning to present Starmer as a hypocrite or that he should appear on the front page of the Daily Mail for three consecutive days. Starmer’s best answer would be not to question the issue, but to change the subject – and let the file speak for itself. For all the complexity of the law that was enforced here and there, Starmer is fortunate that the Metropolitan Police, on the advice of the Crown Prosecution Service, concluded that Johnson’s birthday cake violated the law and that Durham’s power ended in different conclusion about his beer bottle. . After all, that’s all there is to it. Johnson is a lawbreaker and Starmer is not. The only people who care about the unfairness of this discrimination are the devout Conservatives – and many of them do not have much time for the prime minister anyway, because they believed he should never have legislated for a lockdown from the beginning. The Daily Mail headlines may reinforce the views of readers who have never liked Starmer, but I doubt they have much of an impact on fluctuating voters. The damage done by the policy lockdown law breach has already happened and has been suffered by Boris Johnson. Voters who feel strongly about it will continue to do so if they lost relatives during the lockdown and were not allowed to see them. For others, the effect will be diminished. Barnard Castle still occasionally appears in focus teams, but I thought Johnson would pay a higher price than for his failure to fire Dominic Cummings for lockdown violations. There may be more penalty warnings for Johnson, but they are unlikely to cause further damage, as opposed to reminding people for a few days of the damage already done. I suspect that the outcome of the final publication of Sue Gray’s report will be similar. People have already decided what they think of the prime minister who is chairing the Downing Street law violation. And whatever the volatile voters’ view of the epic, Keir Starmer does not appear in it. This is good and bad news for Labor. I know of a focus group research that took place the other day in a Midlands town that contained many Tory border posts. The group consisted of people who had voted Labor since 2005 but voted for Tories in 2019. They were spontaneous and overly angry with the lockdown parties, but were empty-handed when asked what they thought of Starmer. The group’s editor said he “has not yet met a floating voter who can muster a yacht of excitement for him.” It is noteworthy that older voters cited David Miliband as the party’s great missed opportunity, which only shows that when a party makes the wrong turn, it can take a long time to get back on track. Starmer has more to worry about than party Tories showing photos of him with a bottle of beer. His problem is that most of the issues that work in his favor now will fade by the next election. Anger at lockdown parties will wane. The pressure on the cost of living is likely to ease by the summer of 2024. For all the latest views and comments, sign up for the free weekly Voices Dispatches newsletter by clicking here In all matters on which opinion polls today record an unprecedented lead for Labor, the climate is likely to change. The current unusual view of Labor as a low-tax party, for example, is unlikely to survive tax cuts. When it comes to crime, as soon as everyone makes the joke about the No. 10 criminal, resetting the police numbers will at least give Johnson a chance to fight for a draw. Even in the NHS, where Labor will always retain a faith-based advantage, it is likely that if waiting list numbers move in the right direction the year before election day, many voters will decide they are no longer likely to be able to see a general practitioner under a Labor government. Starmer has the luxury of repelling the Tories’ campaign against double standards and lockdown measures, but he has a long way to go before he can influence both former Labor voters and David Miliband.
