NIIRALA, Finland – Two Finnish border guards glide through a narrow cut in a tall pine forest, their skis following a line along a still icy border. Today the line marks the quiet but carefully guarded border between Russia and Finland. It could soon mark the border between Russia and the world’s most powerful military alliance. Among the excuses for his unprovoked attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the possibility of NATO expansion. Now the violent war seems ready to bring NATO to its door. At any time, Finland and Sweden – countries of the European Union that remain militarily non-aligned – are expected to apply for membership in the 30-member alliance. NATO and US officials said they would be welcome. US to “strongly support” Sweden, Finland’s NATO efforts, Blinken says This historic change is an early sign of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine overturns Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture and reshapes world maps in ways that can be felt for decades. Finland’s accession would double NATO’s land border with Russia. The two new members will bring the full strength of the alliance to the far north and strengthen an enhanced presence around the Baltic Sea. NATO, the United States and the EU are now planning a long-term isolation of Russia, signaling the return of the Cold War-type restriction after years of coexistence and cooperation. “This is one of those moments in European history,” said Alexander Stubb, Finland’s former prime minister. “What we are looking at is a semi-permanent division of Europe in two.” On the one hand, he said, you have an aggressive, authoritarian Russia and its warlord, Belarus. On the other hand, you have more than 30 democracies more or less united by a common enemy. “It will all be a military-strategic arena now, especially if you look at it from the Russian side,” said Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council. “Putin did not calculate correctly,” he said. “It’s not what he predicted.” Finland is approaching NATO membership In a way, this maritime shift in European security comes as no surprise to Finland, a country whose anger and alarm over Putin’s actions have accelerated. In the eight decades since Finnish ski troops helped defeat the Soviet invaders, the country joined the EU in 1995 and became a close NATO ally, while still trying to engage and understand Russia. But she has never taken her eyes off the border. Tomi Timonen, deputy chief of the Niirala Border Guard Station, said those living and working in the area were outraged, but not surprised, by Putin’s war. “People here know Russia,” he said. “Like all Finns, we are ready.” Scenes from Ukraine evoke painful memories of Finland. In the Winter War of 1939-1940, the country fought the Soviets but suffered greatly, losing people and territory. Since then, said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the center-right National Coalition, the country has focused heavily on defense. “It comes from our collective memory,” he said. The capital, Helsinki, began building civil defense shelters in the 1940s. A 1960s facility designed to protect up to 9,000 people from bombing and chemical attacks now serves as a parking lot. The city also has shelters used as a sports center, swimming pool and ice rink – but can be ready for emergency use in 72 hours. Tommy Rusk, a preparedness specialist at the Helsinki Rescue Department, said the plans for the devastating bombings in Ukraine, including people hiding in makeshift shelters, had renewed interest in civil defense. The focus on readiness extends to the military. Finland maintains a system of compulsory conscription for men and voluntary recruitment for women. The country can muster a fighting force of 280,000 soldiers, as well as about 900,000 reservists. “We never disbanded the army after the Cold War. “We have invested in it,” said Kai Sauer, Finland’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. “There is a great willingness to defend the country,” he said. “It may sound old-fashioned, but it’s a consequence of our history and our geographical location.” NATO officials and defense analysts described the Finnish forces as strong and relatively well-funded. Shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, Finland finalized the purchase of 64 F-35 fighter jets by US defense giant Lockheed Martin. On the island of Santahamina, inside Helsinki, the army trains troops in the civil war, running conscripts from gangs through live-fire exercises. They were watched on a sunny April afternoon by Ari Helenius, a battalion commander serving with NATO forces in Kosovo. NATO proposes large-scale force deployment in Europe to address long-term threat posed by Russia Finnish troops have been cooperating with NATO since the 1990s. Both Finland and Sweden have contributed missions to the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq. Both forces are highly interoperable with NATO forces. The country stepped up co-operation with NATO following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but Finland remained formally militarily non-aligned. The Finns felt safer outside the alliance. Putin’s full attack on Ukraine changed that overnight. The majority of Finns now believe they would be safer within NATO. “If Putin is able to slaughter his Slavic brothers, sisters and cousins in Ukraine, there is nothing to stop him from doing so in Finland,” said Stubb, the former prime minister. Helenius said the situation in Ukraine is on the minds of young conscripts. “As professional soldiers, it is our job to tell them not to worry,” he said. Ukraine is also on the minds of the general public. Meri Leppänen, public information officer for the island-based Jaeger Guard Regiment, said the war reminded the country “why we do what we do”. Rifles and anti-tank weapons so close to the city were used to cause noise complaints, he said. As of February 24, no one has called on them to complain about strong military training. Jaakko Toropainen, a retired truck driver, said he was neutral about NATO membership, but the invasion changed his mind. His uncle was killed in the Winter War and the country lost a lot, he said. Finland needs “all the help it can get” to stop this from happening again. For now, he said, “I just hope the other side does nothing stupid.” The Vaalimaa border crossing, a few hours outside Helsinki, already shows the change in Finland’s relationship with Russia. Some time ago, the checkpoint was full of trucks, travelers and cross-border shoppers heading to shopping malls – symbols of how Europe remained tied to Russia despite the invasion of Georgia, the annexation of Crimea and everything else. Thanks to the pandemic and the war, a crossing made for thousands now accommodates several hundred people a day, according to Captain Jussi Pekkala, head of the Vaalimaa border crossing. Some Russians with EU-approved vaccines still visit it and the trucks carry occasional timber, but the parking lots are empty and the Zsar Outlet Village looks quiet. The guards greet EU citizens fleeing Russia and Ukrainians fleeing the war. Traffic seems unlikely to recover. Although NATO membership has nothing to do with border policy, most people seem to agree that NATO membership would likely usher in a new era of division between the West and Russia, somewhat reminiscent of the Cold War. A persistent question is whether Finland and Sweden will pursue NATO membership at the same time. Sweden has so far made less progress than Finland, but most analysts believe they will find a way to coordinate. The reasoning, Wieslander said, is that if Russia is to react, “it’s better to happen once.” Moscow has warned of unspecified “consequences” and said it would develop nuclear weapons in the Baltic region if NATO were deployed. But European officials and analysts have largely underestimated these threats, noting that Russia already has nuclear weapons in range. Janne Kuusela, director of defense policy at the Finnish Ministry of Defense, said she did not expect Russian designers to make significant changes to the country’s stance. “It would not really be a huge change for the Russian military,” he said. On the contrary, the NATO move “would be a blow to their self-esteem, to their dignity, because they have been saying for a long time that they do not want this to happen.” Sauer, the deputy foreign minister, said Finland was watching for hybrid or covert attacks. “All I can say is that we are prepared,” he said. He sees the controversy lasting. “The challenge of our foreign policy and security is to have a functioning coexistence with Russia and we have seriously tried to find ways of coexistence and cooperation,” he said. “Because of the Russian aggression, the situation has changed,” he said. “It will take time to find a way out.”
