Cawthorn was hit with a series of bad titles just last week and now faces calls for an ethical inquiry into alleged intelligence transactions by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (NC), who also supports a major challenge against Cawthorn.
Rising scandals are putting Cawthorn’s re-election efforts on an increasingly unequal footing and have fueled uncertainty about how voters will break. While Cawthorn boasts of wide-ranging name recognition and the benefits of his tenure, he consistently gives his critics ammunition – albeit with a limited aisle to fill voters’ minds with controversy and fame.
“I just think there are so many moving parts in this drama that will take place on May 17. I’m not sure anyone has a clear crystal ball to make a prediction one way or another,” said the college political scientist. Catawba Michael Bitzer.
“It’s as clean as mud, as we say down here,” he added. “I would not try to make a guess in any way. “I prefer to go and buy a lottery ticket and I hope to retire at the end of the week.”
Cawthorn first shook his main race last year when he announced he would switch regions to run elsewhere only to return to the campaign for his original position after the redistribution. But uncertainty about his election prospects erupted earlier this year after he spoke of “sexual perversion” in Congress and claimed that other lawmakers had invited him to cocaine-fed orgies.
Since then, North Carolina has ostensibly been on the headlines every week, causing reprimands for revoked licenses. two attempts to carry a loaded weapon through airport security. allegations of sexual harassment; calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “tramp”; allegedly denying an employee permission when two family members died within the same week or more.
Cawthorn was also hit this week with a confidential information allegation, first reported to the conservative Washington Examiner, in an advertisement for the “Let’s Go Brandon” cryptocurrency regulation. Cawthorn reportedly knew inwardly that the digital currency, named after Joe Biden’s anthem, would support NASCAR driver Brandon Brown before the news broke.
Officials say the incessant drop-in scandals may not be enough to stifle hopes for Cawthorn’s re-election, as voters may not be online – but they are certainly putting him in defense.
“Suppose you build houses and make a series of mistakes. One mistake, people might say, “Okay, we’ll fix it. We understand.’ But if you do seven in a row, then they start to wonder. “And I think the mistakes are complex as Cawthorn continues to make them,” said Carter Wrenn, a strategic analyst at the North Carolina GOP.
“You do not really know how many of the voters in his district see stories about it or read about it or watch it on TV, you just do not know at this point,” he added. “It’s hard to say how big the impact is, but it has to be negative.”
Meanwhile, as news of the controversy spreads to the public, Cawthorn rivals erupt.
Cawthorn’s two main opponents are state senator Chuck Edwards (R), considered the so-called incumbent’s choice, and Michele Woodhouse, the former GOP district president.
Edwards garners approvals, including Tillis, of a level of involvement by a state senator that is unusual for an incumbent MP. A Tillis-affiliated super PAC is pouring in $ 300,000 in anti-Cawthorn ads, and Edwards’s campaign itself is expected to spend over $ 400,000 in ads in an area where talk time is cheap.
Tillis further escalated criticism of Cawthorn this week by calling on the House Ethics Committee to launch an investigation into allegations of confidentiality. The committee declined to comment when it arrived at The Hill, and a Cawthorn spokesman did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In addition, a political action committee opposed to Cawthorn filed a moral complaint against him Wednesday, focusing on a number of issues, including lending to an employee who claims to be his cousin.
“Voters are exposed to the fact that it is a mile wide and an inch deep. “A lot of rhetoric, a lot of immaturity, a lot of bad decision-making, knowingly breaking the law while driving with a revoked driver’s license for three years, the gun at the airport, not once but twice,” Woodhouse told The Hill.
“If you had asked me eight months ago, Congressman Cawthorn could have been in this situation, if he had never left, he would have had an easy road to victory, I think, without all these titles. “But I do not know what’s going on with Madison.”
However, Cawthorn is not dead walking.
The incumbent did not back down, accusing the “establishment” of launching a “coordinated drop campaign” against him and saying this week, “They will launch an attack article every day or two just to try to kill us by 1,000 deaths. ».
A Republican poll released Thursday showed Cawthorn support falling – but still 17 points higher than Edwards and more than 30 percent needed to avoid a run-off.
It is famously difficult to overthrow an incumbent in a by-election and in a district as geographically extensive as Cawthorn in the western mountains of North Carolina, Edwards and Woodhouse face an uphill to maximize voter awareness of scandals. two weeks. I am going.
In addition, Edwards and Woodhouse have profiles that are pale in comparison to the national one that Cawthorn boasts, and dragging Cawthorn’s name into the mud can have a limited impact if they fail to get their own identities higher.
“Easy money tells you that all this is such a big deal that a candidate will lose. But I think some of these candidates, many of them are still completely unknown. “And others are just starting to spend a lot of money,” said one experienced North Carolina political observer. “The established institutions do not lose very often. And so, finding time and recognizing a name is the biggest challenge here. ”
Cawthorn’s bomb is also not new, and at some point the emergence of his scandals may bring declining performance to his critics.
“I do not know if this has an impact on the hardline primary electorate in the mountains. “I think this is the biggest question, is whether these voters who are going to run in permanent elections even know about all this,” the source said. “I think they know he is a young hothead who has ambitions to become famous nationally. “So, I think some of these things, they can get it with a little salt because they just assume it’s.”
In addition, Cawthorn is close to former President Donald Trump – an invaluable ally who remains the de facto leader of the GOP.
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“What I think he can deny is Trump’s support of the state. “The big question on my mind is how much of this Trump ratification will overcome the embarrassment, the negative fatigue that Cuthorn has brought upon himself?” Bitzer asked.
Regardless, however, the relentless news of Cawthorn is likely to keep the fight glued to the titles – and vague.
“If this week is a sign, get in there,” Bitzer said, “because it could be a bumpy ride.”
